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PDF versionThe pope is 82. Who's next in line?
An old Roman adage may apply: 'The next pope is not yet a cardinal.'
Apr. 27, 2009
Spotting the next pope. A priest uses binoculars in St. Peter's Square while waiting for smoke to rise from a chimney atop the Vatican's Sistine Chapel in 2005 during the conclave that would elect Pope Benedict XVI. (CNS file photo)
Having just celebrated his 82nd birthday, Pope Benedict XVI seems living proof that German machinery is, indeed, built to last. The pontiff shows few signs of slowing down, and as a result, there’s little buzz about possible successors.
The few lists of papabili, possible future popes, making the rounds seem recycled from the end of John Paul’s reign. Irish bookie Paddy Power, for example, has Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice, Italy, as the 6-1 favorite, with Oscar Rodríguez Maradiaga of Honduras at 7-1, Christoph Schönborn of Austria at 8-1 and Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina at 9-1. Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze is tied with Italians Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan and Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican’s secretary of state, at 10-1. All were considered front-runners last time, but only Bergoglio had traction.
An old Roman adage may apply: “The next pope is not yet a cardinal.”
In that light, it may be useful to drill down past these familiar figures to some cardinalabili, meaning prelates in line to become cardinals, who might eventually be papal contenders. The following are three intriguing examples -- and if one of them breaks from the pack, remember you heard it here first.
-- photos by CNSArchbishop Gianfranco Ravasi, 66
Gianfranco Ravasi comes off as a cross between the famed Italian Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini and Pope Benedict XVI. He blends the intellectual chops of both men, along with Benedict’s orthodoxy and Martini’s capacity to win a sympathetic hearing from secular modernity.
A renowned biblical scholar, Ravasi penned a series of bestselling commentaries credited with stimulating a scriptural “awakening” in Italy. He’s also published front-page essays in Italian newspapers bringing biblical themes to average people.
As head of the Pontifical Council for Culture since 2007, Ravasi has projected intelligence, moderation and media savvy. For example, he recently declared the compatibility of the theory of evolution with Catholic theology. (Along the way, Ravasi managed to cite Claude Lévi-Strauss, Oscar Wilde, Friedrich Schelling, Max Blanc, Isaac Newton and Alexander Pope, all without breaking a sweat.)
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If cardinals feel that communication has to be a priority of the next pope, Ravasi could be a compelling possibility. While some might question the idea of returning to an Italian or a pope from the Roman curia, Ravasi could benefit from the same reasoning that led to Benedict’s election: At the end of the day, he may simply be the strongest card in the deck.
Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya, 69
In 2007, Laurent Monsengwo was named archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, making him a possibility to become the first African pope since St. Gelasius in the fifth century.
Monsengwo comes from a royal family in Congo’s Basakata tribe. (“Monsengwo” means “grandson of the traditional chief.”) He was the first African to earn a doctorate in scripture from the prestigious Pontifical Biblical Institute in Rome. After being appointed a bishop in 1988, Monsengwo served as president of both the Congolese bishops and the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar.
Monsengwo’s influence, however, extends beyond the church. When dictator Mobutu Sese Seko was losing his grip on power in the mid-1990s, the country (then named Zaire) needed someone of unimpeachable integrity to engineer the transition. Monsengwo was tapped as president of the Sovereign National Conference in 1991, president of the High Council of the Republic in 1992 and speaker of a Transitional Parliament in 1994. These efforts were not enough to avoid a civil war, but no one blames Monsengwo, widely seen as a champion of peace, dialogue and human rights.
Monsengwo also knows the Catholic world. During a 2003 conference in Rome, he was asked to compare liberation theology in Africa and in Latin America. Off the cuff, he replied, “In Latin America, there were great rich families that owned all the land. This was never the situation in Africa. … There was always land, and every family could develop it. Today we see this tradition of belonging to a family and a clan as our basis for inculturation, and not liberation in the social sense.”
Two-thirds of the 1.1 billion Catholics in the world today live in the Southern Hemisphere, and nowhere is Catholicism more vigorous than in Africa. Assuming his health holds up, Monsengwo could become the face of a changing church.
Archbishop Angelo Amato, 70
Both previous hypotheses presume the cardinals will be in the mood for a change when they elect the next pope. If they prefer continuity, however, Angelo Amato could come into view as an obvious choice. He’s currently prefect of the Vatican’s Congregation for the Causes of Saints, after serving under then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, now Benedict XVI, at the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.
Born in Southern Italy, Amato belongs to the Salesian order. As a young scholar, he was a fellow at a renowned Orthodox institute of patristic studies in Greece. He spent 1988 on sabbatical at The Catholic University of America in Washington, focusing on the theology of religions, and eventually headed the theology faculty at Rome’s Pontifical Salesian University.
During the 1990s, Amato became an influential consulter of the Vatican’s doctrinal agency, especially on issues of religious pluralism. He worked on the September 2000 document Dominus Iesus, which asserted that followers of other religions are in a “gravely deficient situation.” He was also a driving force behind the investigation of Belgian Jesuit Fr. Jacques Dupuis, whose 1997 book Toward a Christian Theology of Religious Pluralism generated alarm about religious relativism.
Playing a disciplinary role does not always breed popularity. When he was named secretary of the doctrinal congregation in 2002, a joke made the rounds that “Angelo Amato” (meaning “beloved angel”) is neither. Yet people who work with Amato describe him as approachable and gregarious.
If the feeling is that the next pope needs to continue the intellectual legacy of Benedict XVI, Amato could seem tailor-made for the job.
John L. Allen Jr. is NCR senior correspondent. His e-mail is jallen@ncronline.org.
How about Retirement?
How about Retirement? Voluntary? Involuntary for the good of the Institution?
Involuntary retirement "for
Involuntary retirement "for the good of the institution."
What a concept.
Considering that the kind of people who would actually enforce such "involuntary retirement" would be the right wingers, that would only happen if the current Pope somehow heard the Holy Spirit and started advocating women priests, artificial birth control, inclusive language....
I think the retirement option
I think the retirement option should only be discussed by those who are agreeable to the option that they could also be in some way fired by "the Company"!
What about Tim Dolan - he
What about Tim Dolan - he might be the first American
Dolan?! Please Lord, spare
Dolan?! Please Lord, spare us from the likes of Dolan. As my priest friends agree, "he is more fluff than substance."
oh, absolutely! Please, send
oh, absolutely! Please, send him back to the North American!
Hey!
How about Paraguay's Bishop Lugo?
He could bring a new and personal and real perspective to our Roman Catholic Moral Theology, and the benefits of certain mechanical devices . . .
And the blessings of Liberation Theology as well!
Sure
go with Lugo!
An American candidate would
An American candidate would have to be considerably more low-key than Archbishop Dolan, who has yet to be made a cardinal, in any case. He probably acts differently when not amongst his countrymen, but as well-loved as he is in New York, I can't imagine the rest of the world seeing him as anything other than a back-slapping, loud-talking, large-living cliche. Boston's Cardinal O'Malley might be closer to the mark. Frankly, though, I don't see the church electing any American, no matter what his qualifications or affect.
Isn't this kind of
Isn't this kind of speculation a bit disingenuous? The fact that the Holy Father is 82, does not mean one starts looking for a replacement. It must be a slow news day.
I agree with you for sure.
I agree with you for sure. Perhaps these speculators should be more concerned with the second coming of our Lord rather than who the next Pope will be.
after much study I've come to
after much study I've come to believe the Flawless Prophecies of St. Malachy, thatPope Benedict xvi willbe the last Pope followed nby the Anti Christ Peter the Roman.The End
You call this NEWS?
You call this NEWS?
If Archbishop Pasinya becomes
If Archbishop Pasinya becomes "the first African Pope since St. Gelasius in the 5th century," doesn't that make him the SECOND African pope?
No there have been a few more
No there have been a few more African Popes.
actually there could have
actually there could have been any number prior to Saint Gelasius (I do not have the Reverend Father Richard P. McBrien's authoritative and comprehensive tome on the Popes at hand to check). For all we know he could be, say, the twenty-fifth African Pope, simply the first since St. Gelasius in the fifth century.
Check that syntax!
After meeting with LCWR I
After meeting with LCWR I think a woman could hold the posititon. I have a few names I could give you.
Why does the Church always
Why does the Church always pick such elderly men for such a wearing job???
The cardinal electors pick
The cardinal electors pick the next pope.
In the modern era the man they pick has always been a cardinal himself. In order to be a cardial the man has to be the top person either in an important Vatican office or the archbishop of a major diocese.
You forgot Dolan in New
You forgot Dolan in New York...
Hopefully we all will. Please
Hopefully we all will.
Please send him back to the North American and give the good and multicultural Catholics of NYC the pastor they require and deserve, who can talk their languages and visit their hospices, homeless shelters and soup kitchens. Who knows the way to the Catholic Worker House and the Reverend Father Daniel Berrigan's urban hermitage.
Anyone in short but Dolan!
oh yea because Dolan didn't
oh yea because Dolan didn't spend his first few days visiting these places. I guess you are one of those who don't like him because he is a Roman Catholic Bishop in the best sense of those 3 words.
What about Cardinal DiNardo
What about Cardinal DiNardo from
Texas?
Not very tasteful. At least
Not very tasteful. At least you could have wished Pope Benedict a Happy Birthday. By the way, how old are you and when is your next birthday John?...Should we be casting around for your successor? After all, we don't all live forever... Happy Easter! Christ is Risen! Alleluia! Alleluia!
Why doesn't the NCR just come
Why doesn't the NCR just come right and say that they want Benedict XVI dead and replaced by some more to their liking? It is implicit in every article, so just be intellectually honest and say it! At least in their last issue America basically came out and said that they were endorsing Obama because "other issues" can add up to abortion. They are wrong, but at least they had the courage to admit it.
I can't speak for NCR, but I
I can't speak for NCR, but I have the courage. And I'll even put my name to it. Of course I don't WANT anyone dead, but I do want him replace with someone more to my liking, just like I did with JPII. I pray for the Spirit to help free the Church from oppression.
as you have the courage to
as you have the courage to remain anomymous . . .
May God ever Bless and strengthen our beloved and wise National Catholic Reporter and all of its reporters, in particular the great, knowledgable and wry John Allen - ad multos annos
John Allan, if there's
John Allan, if there's anything in the world that I enjoy more than your essays, it's your healthy, good-hearted smile. Thank you for this.
Although the possibility of
Although the possibility of electing someone who is the least bit "liberal" is almost an impossibility, perhaps we could elect someone who is totally unlike the last two popes! We need a pope who will actually work to implement Vatican II and not give it lip service as best. The retreat to the Latin Mass and away from collegiality needs to be halted. The Church needs to begin work on the many problems that face her and quit acting like the Council of Trent was the last valid council,
Imagine ...
Imagine ...
Re: Your: "... perhaps we
Re: Your: "... perhaps we could elect..."
What's with the 'we?' Do you have a Cardinal in your pocket? Part of the problem is that WE have no say in the matter.
As far as I'm concerned all the Cardinals & bishops are illegitimate pretenders. They lost all moral authority when they allowed priests to prey on young children, by shipping them from parish to parish without warning the people about the offenses. Then the bishops all supported each other in conspiracy. The pope was involved too, sending Cardinal Law to the Vatican, when, in fact, he probably should have been indicted. By their actions they also failed their fudiciary responsibility to the church, putting it in a state of financial failure, requiring a sell-off of assets to pay for lawsuits.
They should have all resigned. We should only have church leaders who have been chosen in consultation with the people.
Let's pray it isn't the
Let's pray it isn't the "false prophet" as noted in the Bible and per St. Francis below:
ST. FRANCIS OF ASSISI (1181-1226)
“There will be an uncanonically elected pope who will cause a great schism; there will be diverse thoughts preached which will cause many, even those in the different orders, yea, even to agree with those heretics which will cause my Order to divide, then will there be such universal dissensions and persecutions that if those days were not shortened even the elect would be lost.”
well . . . too late now for
well . . .
too late now for all of that . . .
Cardinal Lavada?
Cardinal Lavada?
Dear God, deliver us from an
Dear God, deliver us from an Angelo Amato papacy. One or two more doctrinal hardliners, and Vatican II will be nothing more than a memory.
and the RC entirely but for
and the RC entirely but for certain sections of the Third World, where it belongs and best lives and thrives and breathes the Holy Spirit.
Read Saint James again.
benidict may not be the best
benidict may not be the best communicator, but he is doing wonderful things for the church. god bless him and give him good health and long life.
Although it's premature to
Although it's premature to speculate about the next pope, people always will speculate, and that's what makes it news, not NCR's like or dislike of the current pope. I'm thankful John Allen is there to report the news, not make it.
Because the church is now much less Italian and European, the next conclave would do well to elect someone from Latin America. Asia and Africa are growing in percentage, but don't yet have the numbers, either in total catholics or cardinal electors. The cardinals will almost certainly never elect an American or anyone from a major world power. Although some consider Germany to be a relatively major power.
God bless Benedict our one and true pope. And will someone please give him some public relations advice before he goes to the Holy Land next month?
Interesting....but
Interesting....but premature.
God Bless Pope Benedict XVI
God Bless Pope Benedict XVI and his successor.
There has been more than one
There has been more than one pope elected under dubious circumstances. Read Eamon Duffy's “Saints and Sinners: A History of the Popes.”
Then there's the matter of Pope Joan .... http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Story?id=1453197&page=1
I nominate Sr. Theresa Kane who was slapped about by that paragon of greatness, JPII.
So John speculates about who
So John speculates about who could be the posssible future pope. Does the NCR honestly find this news worthy? Let us all thank God,that as John says HH Pope Benedict shows "few signs of slowing down". Let us also thank God that the Pope is "built to last". Long live the Pope! Pity that John did not have the courage to tell us why he wrote this article, what his hidden agenda really is.
No replacement is needed at the Vatican at the moment, maybe the NCR will pluck up courage and start douing some spring cleaning by replacing some its so-called journalists.
Thanks for your comments,
Thanks for your comments, Mario C. Unlike you, I do consider John Allen a very solid journalist. But opnions differ, so I'll just give an example:
I remember attending a "town hall" type discussion with John in 2002. It was not supposed to be entirely about papal succession (note the date, several years before Pope John Paul II passed away). However, there was not enough time to cover all the questions the PEOPLE had about who was most likely to be the next pope. This is something that at least a significant portion of the people want to hear. John isn't creating this, he is addressing a subject that is present already.
Benedict may be fit
Benedict may be fit physically but his mind has regressed since during JPII's reign and currently his own, he continues the undermining of the documents of Vatican II. It might be my time to take a "vacation from the church" until the Holy Spirit returns once again to the church and does a thorough housecleaning.
No, he has actually read the
No, he has actually read the documents of Vatican II not just "what he has heard about the spirit of the Council"
What exactly do you mean by
What exactly do you mean by "undermining" and what specific Vatican II documents are you referring to?
I actually read ALL of the Vatican II documents in graduate school...and have found nothing in regards to Benedict XVI "undermining" any of them.
Awaiting your response (and sources).
I love the irony. People
I love the irony. People always post things about bishops violating "the spirit of Vatican II." But when someone challenges them to look to the texts and cite the violations, there is never a response! Maybe they actually read the documents and saw they were nothing like they were told they were.
“There will be an
“There will be an uncanonically elected pope who will cause a great schism; there will be diverse thoughts preached which will cause many, even those in the different orders, yea, even to agree with those heretics which will cause my Order to divide, then will there be such universal dissensions and persecutions that if those days were not shortened even the elect would be lost.”
Judging by the climate of thought around here at NCR, the spirit of the age would indicate this is very possible.
or, more correctly, the
or, more correctly, the climate introduced under JPII (so often called the Lesser) and his CDF, which so utterly eradicated the Spirit and the People of God
Or even more correctly
Or even more correctly fostered the climate.....to eradicate the spirit responsible for the deception of the People of God.....
I think your bashing of a
I think your bashing of a holy man who is in his grave is truly sickening and disgusting.
Please stop your words of hate and attack against people who you obviously know little about.
I am 82. Clearheaded. Very
I am 82. Clearheaded. Very active. Sharp sense of humor(not German!) Many
gerontological studies have proven that a person's health and capabilities
diminish as he/she age. That the Pope is upright and walking doesn't mean that his physicality and mentality are what they were 5, 10 or 20 years ago. He is human and, therefore, subject to the same diminishment as I. Having spent many years in Public Relations, I am appalled at the Pope's P.R. gaffs in the past
year. Don't blame them on the Holy Spirit!! Why isn't there a retirement age for Popes???
I think the Holy Spirit is
I think the Holy Spirit is about to shake the old boys power network (the College of Cardinals) up quite a bit. Perhaps shake them to their roots. I have hopes the next Bishop of Rome will be someone who is not from their ranks. Ultimately, it should be a woman, and in time their will be a female Bishop of Rome. Maybe the next Bishop of Rome will be a lay person. It could happen, but unlikely given the Imperial illness that has infected the Vatican for so many centuries. All of John Allen's choices left me cold. Same old, same old. Third world countries tend to be fundamentalist in their world view so I hope if the next Bishop of Rome is from such a sector of the world, we get someone who is unorthodox. Orthodox thinking is narrow and the reason we have such a credibility problem with the men in Rome and their lack of leadership. They do not inspire. The old ways of doing things have brought the institutional church to ruin and decay. I hope the Holy Spirit shakes the Church's power structure to its' rotten core and produces someone truly Christ-like who will renew the Church and engage the entire world. Every person has value. The orthodox thinkers like to devalue others who will not march to their decadent drum beat. Catholic fundamentalism is in its' death throws. That's why no one listens to the corrupt system of Yes Men in Rome. They just don't get it. The last days of Imperial Rome are finally coming to an end. It's not going to be a pretty sight to see the kicking and screaming as the Holy Spirit cleans house and gives Christ's Church back to The People of God.
The Holy Spirit is shaking
The Holy Spirit is shaking that old network to it's roots--but it's not the Vatican. The Holy Spirit is among the Church as it weeds out those who are pretending to speak in his name, like the LCWR.
Pasinya held positions of
Pasinya held positions of civil authority--apparently, with the Vatican's blessings. Yet, Jesuit Father Drinan was ordered to cede his positon in the US House of Representatives. It seems that there is a double standard: political position in Africa or political influence in Europe (ala Wojtyla) is OK; the same in the Americas (Drinan, Romero, etc) isn't.
Also Padre Ernesto Cardenal
Also Padre Ernesto Cardenal and Padre Miquel D'Escoto (currently President of the United Nations General Assembly) and Padre Ferdinando Cardenal, etc., utterly reviled and persecuted by the JPII regime and still under their persecution and condemnation for having taken part in the democratic birth of their new nation, Nicaragua.
So where's the same charity for them shown those schismatics of the PX society who refused to show any remorse for their schismatic beliefs?
Who's to say that Benedict
Who's to say that Benedict XVI isn't the false prophet?
According to the prophecies
According to the prophecies of St. Malachy, the next pope will be "Petrus Romanus." According to Malachy, this will be the last pope before the Second Coming. But just in case Malachy is wrong, you might want to check what languages the papabile Cardinals know. Popes tend to be extraordinarily multilingual. For example, an English-speaking candidate, with a smattering of Latin wouldn't seem to make the cut.
I just had to comment on this
I just had to comment on this particularly inappropriate column (IMHO). Do you really think the Holy Spirit operates like the current political parties in the US? There are so many urgently important issues to write about. John, this is tacky, tacky, tacky.
Even if there is a schism,
Even if there is a schism, even if there is division, I pray not one will be lost - for we all belong to the One Father through adoption in Baptism - I'm confident He would come looking for us. Don't loose sight of that as we continue to try to move forward to be inclusive, accepting and Christian in our values. In the spirit of Vatican II let us continue to move forward to wholeness in Christ.
... and Fisichella?!
... and Fisichella?!
Wilton Gregory is a good man,
Wilton Gregory is a good man, and would make a wonderful pope.
How much more poor taste can
How much more poor taste can we see in these reflections on your articles and now in the articles themselves? People are called names and now we are told Pope Benedict is 82 (Happy Birthday, Holy Father.) and we should start talking about a replacement. What has happened to civility in this culture?
Dear Mike Mas Did Fr Drinan
Dear Mike Mas
Did Fr Drinan ever say why legal abortion is moral but infanticide isnt? Remember how when he was a US Representative he wouldnt give an answer to those he represented.
we'll probably get stuck with
we'll probably get stuck with the "valid yet illicit" Bishop Williamson . . .
Unlike Chris Smith I would
Unlike Chris Smith I would not presume to think what the Holy Spirit will next do nor use His name to validate my own rather obvious agenda.
Allen himself writes "The pontiff shows few signs of slowing down, and as a result, there’s little buzz about possible successors" by which he makes his own opinions moot.
The Holy Spirit will move the
The Holy Spirit will move the College of Cardinals in the voting for the next pontiff at exactly the right time. Much of the discussion sounds like we are in charge. Well, we're not. No one ever built the Church up by tearing down the Pope.
Our duty is to follow Christ, the way he showed us, through his Church. And trusting the Holy Spirit to lead it.
Taking a relaxed view of the
Taking a relaxed view of the whole thing: the 70 year-old looks the best for his age! You know the adage, "A sound mind, in a sound body." I haven't studies his writings, but I do know Protestants in a "gravely deficient situation". Trouble is I know, probably exactly as many Catholics in a "gravely deficient situation". What to do?
Hey Catholics of the world, I am so ready for a Vatican III. Think about it. We could have a Protestant "Vent Day". No better make it a "Vent Week", that's how long it would take them to get all issues off their collective chests, about Catholics. Followed by a Jewish "Vent Week," Moslem "Vent Week," Buddhist "Vent Week," Pagan "Vent Week," and last but not least, and Agnostic/Undecided "Vent Week." Then we could have a "Now That We Put All Our Gripes Out On The Table, We'll Actually Listen to Catholics' Response" MONTHS. We could start with Protestant "Answers to the Vents Week" etc., etc., etc. People would say, "Man these Catholics, actually are interested in our complaints! We are impressed!
What a great beginning!!!
Mahony might bring the reform
Mahony might bring the reform the Church needs...
I'm sorry, but I thought we
I'm sorry, but I thought we were talking about the next leader of the Catholic Church, not call to action.
Thank you for your comments
Thank you for your comments JG. Indeed opinions differ.I firmly believe that it is the Holy Spirit,not petty talk about who is papabile which maybe many "peoplewant to hear", who enlightens the cardinals to choose the Pope.
What About Cardinal
What About Cardinal Appiah-Turkson of ghana. Cardinal Appiah Turkson of the Cape-Coast Diocese in Ghana is a young Cardinal who can steer the affairs of the whole world wide Catholic Church. He is young. It is about time an african is given the nod to become the next Pope, afterall, envengelization is spreeding very rapidliy in african. This goes to show that the Catholic church is now moving from the West to African. Churches in Africa expecially in (Ghana) are always filled to capacity and in almost all the big cities, there are always three masses on one Sundays.
Unlike Europe, where most catholica are leaving the church and not many catholic churches are filled to capacity on sundays.
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