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by Michael Sean Winters on Feb. 15, 2012
The GOP race heads to Michigan next week and two recent polls show Rick Santorum opening a lead over Mitt Romney. This is a surprise to the Romney people who thought that Michgan would be in the bag. Romney's father was a popular governor in the state and Romney won Michigan four years ago. But, parts of Michigan are exceedingly conservative. The southwest corner of the state, the areas around Grand Rapids, is home to a host of evangelical and charismatic colleges and universities. While Detroit has produced some uber-liberal congressional reps, in the Upper Peninsula, only a Democrat with the conservative street cred of Bart Stupak could win. These areas should prove very open to Santorum's candidacy.
Both men need to come out of the state singing the U of M fight song, but only one gets to be the victor. If Romney wins, he can deflate a lot of the steam behind the Santorum candidacy heading into Super Tuesday. If Santorum wins, he not only puts to rest Romney's inevitability argument, he also likely pushes Gingrich's supporters into his own column on Super Tuesday.
Of course, given the ups-and-downs of this race so far, prediction are really foolish at this point. Maybe Herman Cain will re-enter the race and make a comeback!
WAIT A MINUTE PLEASE, MSW
WAIT A MINUTE PLEASE, MSW ........... Before you unfurl your Santorum banner, MSW, you would be well advised to read U. Michigan Prof. Juan Cole's piece on Santorum's real record with Catholic positions. It is accessible by link in the comment, "Apologists Applaud, So", readily accessible by clicking on at:
http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/letter-decrying-contraception-compr...
Michael, your Republican
Michael, your Republican proclivities are showing, again - giving further the lie to all that "independent" political sensibilities to told us about. Jesus was right: "Seek and you shall find" - in your case, you apparently have found the political excuses to oppose President Obama you were looking for.
Wait a minute folks. I think
Wait a minute folks. I think you are reading into MSW's comments because of previous stands he's taken. I don't see him pushing one candidate or the other here. Fact is, my brother lives on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and from what I can the position he tends to take is toward ultra-conservative candidates and causes. The people in that area appear to have bought into the tea-party narrative on both social issues and the economy. Further, my reading is that there seems to be a lot of belief in that part of the nation in the "America as Christian Nation" narrative. So, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rick Santorum won there.
Bob
I commented yesterday that
I commented yesterday that many Michigander Republicans are more Catholic than the Pope, which gives the edge to Santorum - even with the inevitable blitz of negative ads. The real test for Santorum is Super Tuesday, with or without Newt. If he does not have the money and organization to match Romney by then, the word for the day will be inevitability and anyone who wants to be taken seriously in 2016 will get out.
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