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A message from Zoe Ryan

Como se dice "tsunami" en Espanol?

I am not betting any money on any polls this election cycle. But, if these numbers from Latino Decisions are accurate, Barack Obama will be re-elected president next week. The poll shows Obama winning Latinos by a margin of 73% to 21%. That is higher than in 2008 when Obama took 67% of the Latino vote, and there are today four million more Latinos eligible to vote than four years ago. If this number is true, or even close to true, the Latino vote will be decisive not only in Nevada and Colorado but in Virginia and potentially Florida. 

Mr. Obama will have to send Gov. Rick Perry some flowers - it was Perry's defense of his state's version of the DREAM Act that led Romney to perceive an opening to the right of Perry on the issue of immigration, and take it. Combined with his repeated use of the word "illegals" as a noun, even when appearing on Univision, which shows such incredible disrespect, Romney's lurch to the right on immigration may have killed his chances.

One other observation: If these numbers are true, Latinos will be the reason Obama wins. Despite the Democratic National Convention's "abortion-palooza" quality, Romney actually improved his poll numbers among women in the past two months. If Obama wins, it will not be because of NARAL. It will be because of Latinos who, incidentally, are more pro-life than white, ethnic Catholics. Not sure how that will play out in terms of, say, renegotiating the HHS mandate, but you can bet immigration reform will be front and center next January if these poll numbers are accurately predicting the result among Latinos on election day.   

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-William F. Baker


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May 6-19, 2016


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