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Post-Mortem: VA-5


Congressman Tom Perriello, a one-time Catholic missionary and human rights activist, lost his bid for re-election in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District. Republican Robert Hurt took 51% of the vote in the sprawling Virginia district to Perriello’s 47%. Perriello was the only member of Congress to have the President come to his district to campaign for him, but the election-eve rally in Charlottesville was not enough to generate Democratic enthusiasm at the polls.

In fact, Perriello did worse this year in Albemarle County than he did in 2008, polling 57% to Hurt’s 42%. In 2008, Perriello won the county with 63%. In Charlottesville City itself, Perriello won 80% of the vote but the turnout was not strong enough, despite the President’s visit, to offset his losses in the more rural parts of the district.

Surprise Winners? Sens. Brown, Snowe, Nelson, etc.


The election of Tea Party favorites like Rand Paul and Marco Rubio to the Senate holds out the prospect of trouble for the GOP. They may have won big last night, but there is an unresolved civil war within the Republican ranks, between the Tea Party extremists and more moderate elements. Certainly, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell is aware of the fact that if the Tea Party candidates in Delaware and nevada had not defeated more moderate Republicans in the primaries, he might be the new majority leader next year.

The Democrats, too, must wrestle with last night's results. Yes, they maintained their hold on the Senate, but they need to realize that this result was in large part due to the fact that only 37 seats were up for grabs. If all 100 seats were on the ballot yesterday, the Republicans would undoubtedly be in control of the upper chamber as well.

The Morning After


The Republican wave stretched from the mountains of New Hampshire through the Alleghenies in Pennsylvania, across the Midwest, and throughout the South last night. The Republicans gained control of the House with a sizable majority and fell just short in the Senate. The results were a disaster for the Democrats and for the President. What happened?

According to exit polls, 50 percent of the electorate yesterday said they were “Very worried” about the direction of the economy in the next year and another 36 percent were “Somewhat worried.” This was the central dynamic in the election no doubt: When the economy is in the tank, voters take their frustration out on the party in power.

Watching VA-5 and Elsewhere


It is early in the night and it looks like it is going to be a long night.
Here is a link to the county-by-county results in VA-5. Currently, Republican Robert Hurt is performing well in Franklin and Pittsylvania Counties, but Perriello improved his numbers in Danville City and most of the vote in Charlottesville and Albemarle have not come through yet.
Keeping an eye on the race in Kentucky's 6th congressional district where Ben Chandler is holding on to a slim lead. Also, keep an eye on the South Bend-based district where Joe Donnelly has just overtaken Jackie Walorski after trailing all night.
As always, unless you know which precincts are reporting, raw data is not very helpful. But, these races are all close, as they were expected to be.

Turnout Update


At 4 p.m. in Charlottesville City, the percentage of voters casting ballots in today's midterm election was up to 34 percent. It was at 25 percent at 1 p.m.

In surrounding Albemarle County, turnout as of 4 p.m. had risen to 43 percent, up from the 32 percent who had voted by 1 p.m.

These are strong numbers in the most Democratic leaning part of VA-5. Look for it to be a long night.

Albemarle County vs. Charlotteville City


In my previous post, I said that Albemarle County is centered on Cahrlottesville, and so it is. But, for election purposes, the city is distinct from the county that surrounds it.

As of 1 p.m. in Charlottesville City, 7,059 people had voted, or 25 percent of all voters. That is more than a third of the 19,642 who voted in the 2008 congressional race in Charlottesville.

Big Turnout in Charlottesville


As of 1 p.m., 22,733 voters in Albemarle County, Virginia had already voted. Albemarle County includes the crucial city of Charlottesville.

"It's as if it was 2008," Lauren Eddy, Deputy Registrar of Voters told NCR. The figure represents 32 percent of all eligible voters.

By way of comparison, in 2008, a total of 50,279 votes were cast in the congressional race in Albemarle County, with Cong. Tom Perriello taking just over 63% of the total.

In 2006, a total of 36,417 voters cast ballots in Albemarle County in the last midterm congressional race.


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May 22-June 4, 2015


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