No one should think that the results of the Ames, Iowa straw poll are necessarily predictive of that state’s caucus results: Four years ago, Mitt Romney shelled out tons of money and effort to win the straw poll, which he did, only to lose the caucuses in January. But, something else happened four years ago. Seemingly out of nowhere, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee came in second in the straw poll and it was he who went on to win the Iowa caucus.
This year, Michele Bachmann won the straw poll and, more importantly, she won the day after. She had some competition for the day after contest from Texas Governor Rick Perry, who tried to upstage the Iowa straw poll by announcing his own candidacy the same day in South Carolina. But, while his announcement succeeded in sharing the news cycle during the day on Saturday, Sunday was dominated by the news that Governor Tim Pawlenty was dropping out of the race and by the related coverage of Bachmann’s victory. I say “related” because Pawlenty had made a point of attacking Bachmann during last Thursday’s debate. The results of that strategy are now in: She won and he lost.